Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite at this week’s Open Championship, but according to the Economist’s Eagle statistical model, the Ulsterman is the third most likely winner of the event – possessing a 5.6% win probability.
The Economist’s Eagle model creates up-to-the-minute calculations for every player: their probability of each score outcome on every hole, predicted final score to par, and chances of winning the tournament or finishing among the top five, ten or 20.
The two men which Eagle sees as possessing a greater chance of winning the 148th Open Championship are Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson, who hold a 6.3 percent and 7.4 percent likelihood according to the model.
The results may surprise you, but according to The Economist’s Dan Rosencheck, the venue this week hurts McIlroy’s chances of winning his second Open Championship.
Mcilroy is just one of three players with a pre-tournament win probability of over 5%, which Rosencheck stresses makes him quite clearly one of the world’s absolute best. But The Economist author warns that while his win probability is relatively high, it also represents that “about 17 times out of 18, Mr McIlroy’s fervent supporters will go home disappointed.”
You can follow the Eagle statistical model live throughout the four days of play at eagle.economist.com.