By the Secret Psychic Spy (email@example.com)
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $446.13
Last week: 2/5 Overall 48/81 (59%)
Well, another losing week last week means that I have less money than I started with. Time to turn this ship around but I’ll be honest…I think the bookmakers have done a pretty good job this week as trying to come up with 5 value picks was difficult this week. I did find one underdog that I know at least one friend of the site will be happy with. I will say that the last time I felt like this, my picks went 5/5 so we’ll see what happens. All picks of course are from UFC 187, which is shaping up to be the biggest UFC event in quite some time, at least in terms of fight quality. Two big title fights, 4 potential top contender fights….it should be a great night of action.
Pick 1 – Mike Pyle (26-10-1) +235 over Colby Covington (7-0) I’m betting $80 to win $188
F4W Daily Monday co-host and Wrestling Observer Radio MMA correspondent Tom Lawlor will be cornering Pyle for this fight, which should be enough to make you plunk your money down. But I’m going to give you some more evidence here. Yes, Covington is unbeaten but I’m fairly certain that two of his opponents have been RFred and myself. What I do know is that his 2 UFC opponents had a combined six pro fights prior to facing him. His 7 pro opponents have a combined record of 23-60. Pyle has faced the best of the best for years. His only two losses in his last 7 fights have been to top contenders Jordan Mein and Matt Brown. He derails the Colby Covington hype train with a KO win here.
Pick 2 – Rose Namajunas (2-2) -280 over Nina Ansaroff (6-4) I’m betting $80 to win $28.57
“Thug Rose” is an ever-improving fighter. If you count her TUF 20 tourney wins, she’s got five submissions in five career wins. This is an enhancement match for lack of a better term. Ansaroff has a mediocre record with no big wins. Namajunas should get things back on track with a 2nd round submission here.
Pick 3 – Anthony Johnson (19-4) -110 over Daniel Cormier (15-1) I’m betting $80 to win $72.73
This is the big one. Rumble has been on the roll of a lifetime and it continues here when Dana White straps the light heavyweight title around his waist and once again Daniel Cormier fails to win the big one. Johnson has won 9 in a row, including 7 by KO to steamroll his way into this main event and earn this title shot. Cormier lost to Jon Jones last time out, is taking this fight without a full training camp and is getting older. It should be noted that most guy’s careers take a tailspin after facing Jones and I think the same thing happens to Cormier.
Pick 4 – Uriah Hall (10-4) -400 over Rafael Natal (19-6-1) I’m betting $80 to win $20
Hall is one of the fastest rising stars in the division, with 3 straight wins including 2 KO’s. His only two UFC losses have been by split decision so he’s a couple judge’s scorecards away from a 5-0 record in UFC. Natal is on the wrong side of 30 with a suspect chin and I’m predicting an early KO win for Hall and then a great promo after the fight.
Pick 5 – Dong Hyun Kim (19-3-1) -275 vs Josh Burkman (27-10) I’m betting $80 to win $29.09
Both are coming off losses (Burkman’s was later overturned) but Kim has the much more impressive resume. Burkman is a nice story but it’s been almost 8 years since Burkman last won a UFC fight (UFC 77), while Kim has 11 UFC wins since then. Saturday it will be 12.
All told, I’m betting $400 with a chance to win $338.39
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Ryan Frederick: $176.92 (Picked Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $0 (Picked Wee, Andrews)
Freddy took the lead last week although I think Wee was robbed! I’m going for it this week as I should take the lead no matter what happens with Freddy’s pick when Mike Pyle beats Covington.
Freddy’s pick and analysis:
Travis Browne -460 over Andrei Arlovski
There are a lot of big favorites on this fight card, and if you read my preview for this event earlier this week, you would know I expect all of the favorites to win. Odds are always that there will be an underdog or two win a fight, and of course anything can happen in a fight, so it’s a matter of finding a guaranteed win. I think Browne is a guaranteed win over Arlovski. Arlovski has looked decent in his UFC return, but his chin is still a question mark, and Browne is a big hitter. I like Browne to win, and to win convincingly.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!