Who will win Ballon d'Or 2019? Van Dijk, Messi, Ronaldo & the favourites, outsiders, underdogs & latest odds

The Liverpool centre-back is a favourite to be named the Ballon d’Or winner ahead of the Barcelona superstar and Portuguese forward

Luka Modric winning the Ballon d’Or in 2018 broke the Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi Ballon d’Or dominance over the last 10 years, but will it be for good? 

Ronaldo and Messi have both won five apiece, but they are still favourites to lift it again this year – though another upset could be pulled by Liverpool and Netherlands star Virgil van Dijk. The defender was recently awarded the UEFA Player of the Year award, beating out the duo.

Goal takes a look at the favourites to win the trophy this December as well as the underdogs to claim the prize.

Liverpool being crowned European champions has made centre-back  Van Dijk a firm favourite (with odds of 1/4 according to Oddschecker at the time of writing )  to be win the Ballon d’Or ahead of Messi and Ronaldo.

He was named a surprise winner of the UEFA Men’s Player of the Year award, and was also crowned UEFA Defender of the Season.

The Netherlands star was instrumental in Liverpool’s 2019 UCL victory. The only thing that would work against him is the fact that the Ballon d’Or is very rarely awarded to a centre-back, with Fabio Cannavaro the last defender to win the Ballon d’Or in 2006 after winning the World Cup for Italy and lifting the Serie A title in Juventus colours.

Van Dijk missing out on the Nations League trophy with the Netherlands, losing to Portugal in the final, could also prove to be detrimental.

Messi is a favourite to win his sixth Ballon d’Or with odds of 5/2, despite losing out on the UCL and Copa del Rey and only lifting the Liga trophy with Barcelona. He did, however, win the European Golden Shoe with 36 goals , though failing to win the Copa America with Argentina this summer could see his chances dashed.

Juventus star Ronaldo had a similarly disappointing season on a personal level, having finished the season as his club’s top scorer but not the top scorer in Serie A, but remains 20/1 odds to win the Ballon d’Or for a sixth time. 

The striker, like Messi, did lift the league title, but his missing out on the UCL trophy could also hinder his chances. But in tandem with Van Dijk, Ronaldo leading his country to the Nations League trophy in June could put him into the running again ahead of his Argentina rival .

Mohamed Salah has odds of 20/1 to win his first Ballon d’Or, also in the wake of his Champions League success with Liverpool. The Egypt international finished the domestic season as winner of the Golden Boot, tied with Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang .

Harsh critics will say that his second season at Anfield wasn’t as successful as his debut, netting 27 goals compared to 44 strikes in his first season, but winning the Champions League should be the difference-maker. Crashing out of the AFCON with Egypt this summer in the round of 16 could work against him.

Liverpool and Brazil goalkeeper Alisson also has odds of 20/1,  having won the UCL in his debut season with the Reds and winning the 2018/19 Golden Glove award for keeping the most clean sheets in the Premier League. He was also victorious in the 2019 Copa America, winning the tournament with Brazil. He was also the first goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet in a UCL final since 2010.

Salah’s Liverpool team-mate Sadio Mane has odds of 25/1 of winning the Ballon d’Or. He, too, will have his UCL winners’ medal to his advantage as well as another impressive season with the Reds, and but narrowly missed out on the boost of winning the AFCON after his Senegal side lost to Algeria in the final.

Raheem Sterling is also backed at odds of 50/1 to be crowned the Ballon d’Or winner.

The Manchester City winger lifted the domestic treble under Pep Guardiola and had an incredible season, and also captained England for this first time as the Three Lions secured third place at the Nations League.

Both Eden Hazard and Kylian Mbappe have odds of 66/1 to win. Hazard was Chelsea’s standout performer by a mile in his last season at the club and guided his team to the Europa League, third place in the Premier League and runners-up in the Carabao Cup final.

He was awarded for his impressive campaign for Chelsea with an £88 million move to Real Madrid in the summer , though it could be another season or two until Hazard emerges as a true contender for the Ballon d’Or – depending on how he performs with Los Blancos.

Paris Saint-Germain Mbappe is another favourite for the Ballon d’Or a year after he lifted the World Cup, though his club’s failure to go far in the UCL – knocked out by Man Utd in the round of 16 – could affect his chances. He finished the domestic season as Ligue 1’s top scorer, but also lost out on the French Cup.

Gabriel Jesus is also priced at odds of 66/1 to win the Ballon d’Or after winning the league, FA Cup and Carabao Cup with Manchester City.

Tottenham and France shot-stopper Hugo Lloris has odds of 66/1,  though he remains a clear outsider having lost the UCL final to Liverpool and finishing in fourth place in the Premier League.

Man City superstar  Sergio Aguero emerged as a contender to put pressure on the competition and is also priced at 50/1 to win the award following his impressive season for his club, breaking Alan Shearer’s record for the most hat-tricks for a Premier League side.

The likes of Mario Mandzukic and Gonzalo Higuain are firm outsiders, backed at odds of 80/1,  while players such as Willian, Angel Di Maria, James Rodriguez and Romelu Lukaku are all priced at 100/1 .

Neymar is not considered a strong contender, also backed at odds of 150/1, following a disappointing season with PSG where he spent most of the campaign on the sidelines and missing the entirety of Brazil’s Copa America campaign due to injury.

Antoine Griezmann has odds of 250/1 to win following his move to Barcelona from Atletico Madrid in the summer, after he finished third in last year’s votes.

Modric is the most recent Ballon d’Or winner, breaking the Messi and Ronaldo duality of the last 10 years. Ronaldo was named in second place, with Griezmann in third.

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Year Winner Second place Third place
2018 Luka Modric Cristiano Ronaldo Antoine Griezmann
2017 Cristiano Ronaldo Lionel Messi Neymar
2016 Cristiano Ronaldo Lionel Messi Antoine Griezmann
2015 Lionel Messi Cristiano Ronaldo Neymar
2014 Cristiano Ronaldo Lionel Messi Manuel Neuer
2013 Cristiano Ronaldo Lionel Messi Franck Ribery
2012 Lionel Messi Cristiano Ronaldo Andres Iniesta
2011 Lionel Messi Cristiano Ronaldo Xavi
2010 Lionel Messi Andres Iniesta Xavi
2009 Lionel Messi Cristiano Ronaldo Xavi
2008 Cristiano Ronaldo Lionel Messi Fernando Torres
2007 Kaka Cristiano Ronaldo Lionel Messi
2006 Fabio Cannavaro Gianluigi Buffon Thierry Henry
2005 Ronaldinho Frank Lampard Steven Gerrard
2004 Andriy Shevchenko Deco Ronaldinho
2003 Pavel Nedved Thierry Henry Paolo Maldini

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